科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 136-144.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

管理者过度自信对企业信用风险的影响机制

徐朝辉,周宗放   

  1. 电子科技大学经济与管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-22 修回日期:2016-03-22 出版日期:2016-09-20 发布日期:2016-09-20
  • 通讯作者: 徐朝辉
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金（批准号71271043，2013-2016）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金（批准号20110185110021，2012-2015）。

The influence mechanism of managerial overconfidence on corporate credit risk

Xu Chaohui， Zhou Zongfang   

  1. School of Economics and Management, University of Electronic Science and Technology, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China
  • Received:2015-04-22 Revised:2016-03-22 Online:2016-09-20 Published:2016-09-20

摘要： 管理者的非理性行为—“过度自信”不仅影响企业多元化经营战略，且可能加剧企业信用风险。本文从行为科学视角，对管理者过度自信与经营多元化之间的关系及其对信用风险的影响进行了深入分析，并以深沪A股2009-2012年间的上市公司为研究对象进行了实证检验。研究发现管理者过度自信与多元化经营程度显著正相关，与信用风险显著正相关，多元化经营在管理者过度自信与信用风险之间存在显著中介效应。同时，前期多元化经营程度显著正向影响管理者过度自信心理，而前期企业信用风险对管理者过度自信心理影响不显著。本文的研究结果对企业管理者自身行为修正与经营战略制订具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 管理者过度自信, 多元化经营, 信用风险

Abstract: The irrational behaviors of managers, that is, “overconfidence”, which may not only affects diversification strategy, but also exacerbates corporate credit risk. In this paper, from the angle of behavior science, on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate diversification and its impact on corporate credit risk has been discussed, furthermore, empirical examination on the Chinese listed companies over the period from 2009 to 2012. The study found: Managerial overconfidence significantly affects the company's diversified operations. Company’s diversified operations have mediating effect between managerial overconfidence and corporate credit risk. In addition, diversification of the prior period can significantly positive affect the manager's overconfidence, while the effects of credit risk of the prior period on the psychological impact of the overconfident managers were not significant. The results of this study have great reference value to the managers’ behavior modification and enterprise management strategies’ formulation.

Key words: managerial overconfidence, diversification, credit risk