关键词: 微博, 谣言传播, SIR- CO模型, 影响力评估；Agent仿真

Abstract: At present, microblog rumors run rampant and cause great damage to the real society. For the purpose of controlling rumors dissemination on microblog network scientifically, in this research, a directed dissemination model with skepticism and anti-rumor mechanism named SIR-CO is proposed according to the virus dissemination model and the features of rumors dissemination on microblog network. Then, in order to monitor the social impact of microblog rumors, an impact evaluation algorithm of rumor source is proposed. On this basis, use Agent-based modeling and simulation methods to simulate the dissemination of rumors on microblog. Analysis of results lead to conclusions: convincing degree of rumor content, influence degree of nodes and time of interventional inhibition is the significant factor for rumors dissemination and control in microblog; the impact of rumor source, with a final stable state, is related to the number of spread, the number of infected nodes and the distribution of influence degree. Based on the simulation analysis results, it’s recommended that, when controlling microblog rumor dissemination, use the target immunization strategy to prevent rumors spreading out and adopt multipoint side chronic strategy to reduce rumors assimilation.