科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 123-130.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

食品行业突发事件风险感知的传染病模型研究

马颖1, 张园园1, 宋文广2   

  1. 1. 武汉理工大学管理学院, 湖北 武汉 430070;
    2. 武汉大学国际软件学院, 湖北 武汉 430070
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-12 修回日期:2013-07-28 出版日期:2013-09-27 发布日期:2013-09-10
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年项目"消费者食品安全风险感知的量度及调节研究"(71203171,2013年-2015年);湖北省社会科学基金"湖北食品安全保障机制研究"(2011LJ059,2011年-2012年);武汉理工大学自主创新基金"消费者食品安全风险感知的信息效应研究"(2012-IB-015);武汉市社科基金项目"供应链视角的武汉农产品食品安全保障研究"(20112s0106,2011年-2012年)。

Research on epidemic model of emergency events risk perception in food industry

Ma Ying1, Zhang Yuanyuan1, Song Wenguang2   

  1. 1. Management School of Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China;
    2. International Soft School of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2012-09-12 Revised:2013-07-28 Online:2013-09-27 Published:2013-09-10

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摘要： 日本2011年的"地震—引发海啸—引起核泄漏—导致核辐射"一系列突发公共危机事件对我国经济和消费者的生活产生了较大的影响,特别是对我国的食品行业,衍生了诸如菠菜滞销、抢购食盐的食品供给安全突发事件。本文运用传染病模型,研究了食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的特征和过程,建立了食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的传染病模型,并以日本大地震衍生的我国抢购食盐的食品供给安全事件风险感知为例进行模型仿真模拟,提出了规避食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的措施建议。

关键词: 传染病模型, 风险传递, 日本地震, 抢购食盐风波

Abstract: In 2011, a series of unexpected public crisis, namely the "earthquake-tsunami-nuclear leak-nuclear radiation" which happened in Japan, brought out a great impact on the economy and the consumers' life in China, especially in the food industry, which generates a series of emergencies in food supply safety, such as the poor market of spinach and the panic buying of table salt, etc. This paper applies the epidemic model to analyze the features and process of the risk perception and transfer in the emergency events of the food industry, and establishes an epidemic model for such risk perception and transfer, Then, the paper also conducts the model simulation by citing the panic buying of the table salt generated by the great earthquake in Japan as an example of the risk perception of the food supply safety emergency, and puts forward suggestions to avoid the emergency risk perception transferring in food industry.

Key words: Epidemic model, risk transfer, earthquake in Japan, panic buying of table salt

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