基于证据推理的软件项目投标风险评估

科研管理 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 106-111,128.

基于证据推理的软件项目投标风险评估

曹萍, 陈福集

福州大学公共管理学院,福建福州 350108

收稿日期:2010-08-25 修回日期:2011-05-17 出版日期:2012-07-27 发布日期:2012-07-19
基金资助:
国家杰出青年项目(70925004) 2009.9-2012.9;国家社科项目(10CGL005) 2010.6-2012.6

The risk evaluation of software project bidding based on evidence reasoning

Cao Ping, Chen Fuji

School of Public Administration, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China

Received:2010-08-25 Revised:2011-05-17 Online:2012-07-27 Published:2012-07-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对软件项目的投标风险进行评估,是承包方选择项目的依据和提高软件项目成功率的有效手段。本文构建了软件投标项目风险评估的三级评价指标体系;并针对指标存在不确定性的特点,应用ER方法建立了软件项目的投标风险评估模型,对软件投标风险进行了综合评估。该模型解决了评价指标存在的不确定性和不完全信息的问题,案例分析说明该方法对软件投标项目风险评估的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 软件项目, 投标风险, 证据推理

Abstract: The bidding risk assessment of software projects is the basis of projects selection and an effective means for increasing the success rate of software projects. A three-level evaluation index system is built for the risk assessment of the software project. Considering the uncertainty of some indicators, a bidding risk evaluation model based on evidential reasoning method is proposed to synthetically evaluate the bidding risk of software project. The model is able to solve the uncertainty and incomplete information problems of evaluation index. Case studies illustrate that the proposed approach is effective and practical.

Key words: software project, bidding risk, evidence reasoning

中图分类号:

C 931.2

曹萍, 陈福集. 基于证据推理的软件项目投标风险评估[J]. 科研管理, 2012, 33(7): 106-111,128.

Cao Ping, Chen Fuji. The risk evaluation of software project bidding based on evidence reasoning[J]. Science Research Management, 2012, 33(7): 106-111,128.

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