科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 190-194 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    

基于属性综合评价系统的新兴技术识别研究

黄鲁成，卢文光   



  1. （北京工业大学经济与管理学院，北京100022）
  • 收稿日期:2008-06-12 修回日期:2008-12-16 出版日期:2009-07-24 发布日期:2009-07-24

Study on the identification of emerging technology by an attribute synthetic measure model

Huang Lucheng， Lu Wenguang   


  1. (School of Economy and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China)
  • Received:2008-06-12 Revised:2008-12-16 Online:2009-07-24 Published:2009-07-24

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摘要： 摘要：新兴技术对经济、社会发展产生的重要作用,已逐步为各国政府和管理学界所公认。要投资新兴技术，首先要对其进行识别，以及评价和选择，然而新兴技术的高度不确定性和创造性毁灭特性给新兴技术的识别、评价和选择带来了巨大挑战。本文利用在属性集和属性测度理论基础上提出了属性综合评价和决策系统，对一组技术进行了判别，进而对其进行了分类，以求找出其中的新兴技术，为新兴技术的评价和选择，以及新兴技术的最终商业化和产业化奠定了坚实基础。

关键词: 新兴技术, 属性测度, 识别

Abstract: Abstract: It is recognized by governments and researchers that the emerging technology is playing an important role in economic and social development. The first step to manage and invest in the emerging technology is to identify, assess, and evaluate it. Whereas due to both the technology uncertainty and marketing uncertainty, it is a big challenge to correctly identify and assess the emerging technology. A study on the identification of emerging technology is made by an attribute synthetic measure model based on the indexing system that developed by expert panel, and is a combination of quantitative and qualitative index.

Key words: emerging technology, attribute measure, identification

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