科研管理 ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 67-84.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

新型城镇化与产业结构演变协调发展度测度研究---以湖南省为例的实证分析

魏敏1,2,胡振华1   

  1. 1.中南大学商学院,湖南 长沙410083;
    2.长沙师范学院经济管理学院,湖南 长沙410100
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-24 修回日期:2018-09-12 出版日期:2019-11-20 发布日期:2019-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 魏敏

An empirical research on the coordinated development between new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan

Wei Min1,2, Hu Zhenhua1   

  1. 1. Business School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan, China; 
    2. Economic Management School, Changsha Normal University, Changsha 410100, Hunan, China
  • Received:2017-10-24 Revised:2018-09-12 Online:2019-11-20 Published:2019-11-25

摘要: 根据生态系统理论,构建新型城镇化与产业结构演变协调发展评价指标体系,综合运用熵权法、层次分析法和主成分分析法对指标赋权,借助城镇化与产业结构协调发展定量评价模型,对湖南省2000-2015年新型城镇化与产业结构演变协调发展度动态变化进行实证研究。结果表明,从时间维度看,新型城镇化和产业结构演变综合发展水平均呈不同程度上升趋势,前者明显快于后者,两系统时间性协调存在不均衡性;从结构功能看,两系统相互作用不明显,整体功能性尚未得到充分发挥;从动态趋势看,两系统协调发展呈现良好势头,协调发展度不断提高,但协调类型从城镇化滞后转变为产业结构滞后;各市协调发展度存在不均衡性,东部城市远高于中西部城市。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 产业结构演变, 协调度, 协调发展度

Abstract: Based on the theory of system and synergy, this study constructs a new evaluation index system for the coordinated development of urbanization and industrial structure evolution, and comprehensively applies entropy weight method, analytic hierarchy process, and principal component analysis method to empower indicators and introduce new urbanization and industrial structure. The evolution and coordination development evaluation model are used to demonstrate the coordination of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2017. The empirical analysis results show that:
The coordination between the two is different in the time dimension. The new urbanization and industrial structure development in Hunan Province showed an upward trend. The former has been in a stable growth trend, with a substantial increase, and the development level is significantly higher than the latter. Its contribution and coordination in the subsystem are higher than those of the population development, residents’ living, and urban and rural coordination subsystems. However, the evolution of industrial structure shows a trend of large fluctuations, the growth rate is relatively low, and the development level is relatively lagging. The contribution and coordination of the output value subsystem in the subsystem are the highest, the employment structure development is lagging, and the proportion of non-agricultural industries is relatively low, and the proportion of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries is not coordinated. The development level difference between new urbanization and industrial structure is getting bigger and bigger, which leads to the apparent deviation of their development trajectory.
The coordination between the two is not synchronized in the speed dimension. The coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan Province has shown good momentum. The degree of coordination and coordinated development has been continuously improved. However, the correlation between the growth rates of the two systems is not stable, and the development speed of the two systems is not synchronized. From 2000 to 2017, the average growth rate of the general development level of new urbanization was 7.65%; and the average growth rate of the comprehensive development level of industrial structure evolution was 8.89%. Urbanization and industrial structure have not achieved simultaneous development in terms of development speed. The two systems do not have synergy in the speed dimension, and there is a severe imbalance.
The interaction between the two is not strong enough. From 2000 to 2009, the new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan experienced a long process of “disorder.” This shows that during this period, the two systems have developed slowly, and the degree of coordination and coordinated development is relatively low, failing the overall function of the two systems. From 2010 to 2017, the new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan entered the stage of “deadly disordered and reluctant coordination”, indicating that the overall functional role of the two systems began to play to a certain extent, but the overall functional coordination development is still low, and the interaction between the two systems was not noticeable.
Sustainability is not evident in the evolutionary trend. The new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in Hunan experienced a process from disharmony to reluctance, and the level of coordinated development experienced two conversions, and its coordination degree and coordinated development degree were significantly improved. However, the type of coordination lag has not changed. The development level of new urbanization has always been ahead of the level of industrial structure development. The gap has become more and more obvious with the development of time. It is unlikely that there will be a virtuous cycle of coordination lag types at this stage. The sustainability of the two systems in the evolution of the coordination state is not apparent.
There is a development imbalance in regional coordination. The level of coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution in each city is generally good, but there are distinct regional differences. The general development level of urbanization in each city shows a two-level differentiation phenomenon of the normal distribution, and its level is higher than the overall development level of industrial structure; the two-level differentiation of industrial development level of each city is more dangerous. The city with a coordinated development level reaching the primary coordination accounted for 42.86%. The cities with higher levels were almost all distributed in the eastern region, while the lower levels were distributed in the western region, showing a downward trend from east to west.
From the perspective of the coordinated development measure model and process constructed in this study, there are at least six aspects of significant scientific and innovative features:
Firstly, a very comprehensive evaluation index system has been constructed. According to the theory of ecosystem, on the basis of fully absorbing the existing research results, from the perspective of comprehensiveness of indicators, a comprehensive evaluation index system for measuring the coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution has been innovatively constructed, covering all the different factors that may affect the coordination of the two. The establishment of these indicators is systematic, scientific, rational, comparable, data-attainable, objective, and pioneering in academia.
Secondly, a method of empowering the combination of indicators was adopted. Considering the different degrees of influence of various factors on the coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution, the combination of entropy weighting, analytic hierarchy process, and principal component analysis is used to improve the rationality andscientificity of index weights further. It circumvents the shortcomings of the measurement evaluation index system.
Thirdly, the calculation formula of coordinated development degree measurement is scientifically constructed, and a quantitative evaluation model of new urbanization and industrial structure coordinated development is established, and a new concept of coordination degree and coordinated development degree is proposed. Moreover, the type of coupling and coordination development is divided into seven different levels, which provides methodological guidance for scientifically finding gaps and making suggestions.
Fourth, make full use of the statistical yearbooks, statistical bulletins, environmental bulletins, and other data platforms of Hunan Province and various cities in 2000-2017.By collecting tens of thousands of raw data, the extreme value method is used to standardize the raw data of the indicator system. The data is authentic, accurate, and systematic.
Fifth, according to the historical data of Hunan Province from 2000 to 2017, an empirical study on the dynamic changes of the coordinated development degree of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution was carried out. From the aspects of a time dimension, structural function, dynamic trend, the coordination between the two systems, and the two systems are analyzed.
Sixth, a series of countermeasures are put forward to promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution. It will have a positive guiding significance for countries (regions) to solve the problems existing in the development of new urbanization and industrial structure, and to promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure evolution.

Key words: new urbanization, industrial structure evolution, coordination degree, coordinated development degree