关键词: 五年规划实施, 五年规划绩效, 影响机制, 十二五规划

Abstract: Since 1953, China has compiled and implemented 13 Five-Year Plans which have been regarded as the entrance to crack the mystery of China's rapid economic development. Provincial Five-Year Plan depicts the province's development prospects and blueprints, and clarifies the focus of government work in next five years. While it costs a lot of time and manpower to compile a Five-Year Plan. Taking the 13th Five-Year Plan as an example, it took a year and a half to compile the plan text from the early research in June 2014 to the formal adoption in January 2016. However, study on the performance of Five-Year Plan implementation, especially the study on provincial Five-Year Plan, is insufficient. If the Five-Year Plan is limited to "drawing on paper, hanging on the wall", ignoring its implementation and effect, it is not only a great waste of public resources, but also irresponsible for the future development of the region. This paper concludes that in the process of implementation, the factors affecting planning performance mainly include the execution subjects, implementation resources, organizational characteristics and the scientific level of planning. For the performance of the five-year plan, this paper argues that it mainly includes two aspects: the degree of completion and the effect of completion. The degree of completion is measured by the actual implementation situation of the plan objectives and tasks. The effect of completion refers to the benefits to the department after the implementation of the five-year plan. The ability, enthusiasm and recognition of the execution subjects determine whether the Five-Year Plan can be implemented in time. And the subject of policy implementation influences the performance of Five-Year Plan by acquiring and making full use of various resources. It can be seen that planning implementation resources are a powerful force to implement the performance for the execution subjects. Flexible and fair organizational characteristics can enhance communication, reduce friction and promote performance implementation. In addition, clear objectives and clarity of text expression are conducive to the implementation of Five-Year Plan.So，we assume in this paper that the execution subjects has a significant positive impact on planning performance；the implementation resources play an intermediary role in the relationship between the execution subjects and planning performance；the organizational characteristics play a moderating role in the relationship between execution subjects and planning performance；and the scientific level of plan plays a moderating role in the relationship between execution subjects and planning performance.In order to conduct empirical research to explore the impact of provincial five-year plan implementation on the final performance of the five-year plan, a mixed model of intervening variable and mediated variables is constructed. Taking the 12th Five-Year Plan of Chongqing as an example, this study selected 31 municipal departments that compiled and implemented the outline of the five-year plan and the special plan at the municipal level in Chongqing for investigation. Sampling design involves at least three employees in each department, and at least one planning supervisor participates in filling out questionnaires and receiving interviews. A total of 120 questionnaires were distributed and 99 were recovered, with a recovery rate of 82.5%.In order to measure the performance of Five-Year Plan implementation, this paper uses SPSS19.0 to make descriptive statistical analysis of the two dimensions of planning performance variables (the degree of completion and the effect of completion). The proportion of the positive and negative directions of the answers selected by the participants is used as the measurement index of Five-Year Plan performance. According to the statistical results, the degree of completion is preferably, with over 75% of the respondents in “agreed or fully agreed”. While only 69.7% of the respondents “agreed or fully agreed” the implementation of the plan has promoted the performance of the departments. That is to say the output of Chongqing's 12th Five-Year Plan is better than the production efficiency, that is, the specific planning objectives and tasks are more recognized than the abstract external benefits to the planning department. That is to say, the completion of Chongqing's 12th Five-Year Plan’s objectives and tasks are more recognized than the abstract external benefits to the department. This paper uses SPSS19.0 to test the mixed model of variables Y, X, M, W and U, which are planning performance (Y), execution subjects (X), implementation resources (M), organizational characteristics (W), and scientific level of planning (U). Based on the testing results of mixed model, the execution subjects (X) has a significant positive impact on planning performance (Y). Planning implementation resources (M) have a significant intermediary effect on the execution subjects (X)-planning performance (Y). And it is a partial mediating effect. The proportion of the mediating effect in the total effect is 38.4%. This not only verifies the view that implementing resources are the important condition of implementing performance, but also further explores the relationship among execution subjects, resources and performance by means of intermediary effect analysis. However, in this study, the organizational characteristics (W) and scientific level of planning (U) have no significant moderating effect on the execution subjects (X)-planning performance (Y). The reason why the moderating effect of organizational characteristics is not significant may be that 13 five-year plans have been compiled and implemented in China, which means that a relatively solid operation mode has formed within the government. So, in turns, there is no significant difference in the characteristics between planning organizations. However the specific reasons need to be further studied.Based on the research conclusion, this paper suggests that in order to improve the performance of planning implementation, the primary task is to improve the quality of the execution subjects and ensure the effectiveness of planning preparation and implementation. The study also finds that planning and implementation resources have a significant impact on performance. However, no matter at Chongqing or the national level, the utilization of resources lacks institutional guarantee. Therefore, in order to effectively improve performance, it is necessary to establish a corresponding guarantee system.

Key words: Five-Year Plan’s implementation, Five-Year Plan’s performance, influence mechanism, 12th Five-Year Plan