关键词: 科技创新, 产业结构升级, 空间面板模型, 面板门槛模型

Abstract:  The 19th National Congress of Communist Party of China points out that innovation driving and structure upgrading are two important aspects in “building modern economic system” while the core of innovation driving is technology innovation and the key of structure upgrading lies in the upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, deeply probing into the mechanism of the influences of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure on economic growth standing in the new historical period bears important significance on realizing the China’s economy stability and high-quality growth.The existing research draws relatively more attentions on the economic growth effects of technology innovation and the discussion of combining the technology innovation and upgrading of industrial upgrading is less during the process of analyzing the core driving elements of economic growth and relatively big differences exist in the research conclusions. Some scholars believe that science and technology innovation is the main strength driving China's economic growth, and some other scholars think that the contribution of structural upgrading to economic Growth is relatively bigger. The possible reason why the research conclusions are different lies in the nonlinear effects of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure on the economic growth. In the content of research, the article tries to make some degrees of innovations in two aspects: firstly, considering the close connections exist between technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure, and launching the research combining the technology innovation, upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth into the same framework system, and deeply analyzing the mechanism of effects of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure on the economic growth from the perspectives of “independent effect” and “synergistic effect”. Secondly, considering the possible existed nonlinear influences of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure on the economic growth, the article draws lessons from the research of Hansen（1999）to construct panel threshold model to validate the conclusion and it has the theoretical values and realistic significance on building modern economic system and exploring the effective routes of enhancing the quality of economic growth in the new era.On the research methods, the existing research basically adopts the analysis method of ordinary panel model and most researches all ignore the space relativity of regional economic growth and the process of analysis hasn’t yet taken the spatial heterogeneity and spatial independence of economic development on the geographic space as the variables to be taken into consideration to investigate. In fact, along with China’s economic development and the constant pushing forward of the marketization process, the economic activities such as the element flow and technology diffusion among various regions are increasingly frequent and result in the fact that there are certainly some degree of spatial connections among various regions. Therefore aiming at the deficiencies of existing research, the article takes the space relativity between the technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure into consideration, draws lessons from the researches of Anselin.et.al（1996, Le Sage & Pace (2009) and so on to comprehensively apply the spatial error model, spatial lag model and spatial Durbin model to analyze the economic growth effects of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure through by setting up the spatial weights matrix including the geographical distance and economic distance in order to make the research conclusion more solid and be close to objective facts.The main research conclusion of the article is as follows:Firstly, the obvious spatial effects of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure exist during the process of influencing the economic growth. The promoting role of technology innovation on the economic growth is mainly concentrated on the local places and the spillover effects is not obvious; while upgrading of industrial structure showcases the inhibition effects on the economic growth both the local area and surrounding area.Secondly, there exists the tight interaction relationship between technology innovation and the emphasis of either technology innovation or upgrading of industrial structure alone can’t play the promoting role of both two in the economic growth very well and only by both promoting and coordinating with each other, can the promoting role of both two on the economic growth showcase the effect of “one plus one surpasses two”. Thirdly, the role of independent effects of upgrading of industrial structure on the economic growth being significantly negative showcases that the upgrading of industrial structure in the present stage encumbers the economic growth but the cooperation of upgrading of industrial structure and technology innovation showcases relatively strong positive effects on the economic growth and it can showcase that technology innovation is the important factor to promote the economic growth and correct the "negative effect" in the process of upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time it also showcases that treating innovation driving as the important impetus of economic growth in the new stage of the development of China’s economic growth is conducive to guaranteeing that that China’s economy develops steadily and continuously and improving the quality of economic growth. Fourthly, threshold effect analysis showcases that the thresholds of technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure exist on the economic growth. The technology innovation and upgrading of industrial structure are the mutual conditions; on one side, only by speeding up the technology innovation can we make the upgrading of industrial structure to promote the economic growth better; on the other side, technology innovation needs the support of upgrading of industrial structure if it wants to be the impetus to drive the economic growth and only by both two matching with each other can the promoting role of technology innovation on the economic growth be played relatively well.

Key words: technological innovation, upgrading of industrial structure, space panel model, panel threshold model