关键词: 组织学习, 组织注意力, 企业预测能力, 控制错觉, 过度自信

Abstract: In a highly uncertain and turbulent environment, corporate strategic decision-making is largely dependent on its forecasting ability. Whether an enterprise can predict the environment in advance, the learning ability must be considered seriously. However, not all the information of environmental stimulus can be clearly conveyed to the organization. Therefore, corporations need to spend a lot of time and energy to scan the organizational environment to perceive the stimulus of opportunities or threats, complete the noticing, encoding, interpreting and focusing, and generate organizational attention ultimately. Based on the analysis of the construct of organizational attention, this study first explores the influence of organizational learning on firm’s forecasting ability and organizational attention, then explores the mediating role of organizational attention between organizational learning and firm’s forecasting ability, and finally explores the moderate effect of illusion of control and overconfidence.To test hypotheses, we selected 284 managers from 500 corporations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Shiyan. In order to improve the quality and validity of data collection, we have invested a lot of time and energy in the design of questionnaires. Firstly, we carried out a lot of literature research. Secondly, we conducted in-depth interviews. Thirdly, we sought advice from scholars. Finally, we conducted a small range of test and then an overall questionnaire was issued. The whole data collection took us half a year. We used factor analysis, structural equation model and moderated effect model to test hypotheses. The empirical results showed that: (1) Organizational attention consists of four dimensions: noticing, encoding, interpreting and focusing. (2) Organizational learning is positively related to firm’s forecasting ability. (3) Organizational learning is positively related to organizational attention. (4) Organizational learning has an indirect effect on firm’s forecasting ability via organizational attention. (5) Overconfidence moderates the relationship between organizational attention and firm’s forecasting ability negatively, however the moderate effect of illusion of control is not significant.The present research makes several contributions to organizational attention literature and practice. In terms of theoretical contributions, this research proves that the division of four dimensions of organizational attention is operable and it is pointed out that learning orientation cannot directly promote the improvement of firm’s forecasting ability and it must be achieved by organizational attention. It lays a theoretical foundation for future research on organizational attention. In terms of the practical implications, this research suggests that in organizational learning, corporations must realize that shaping organizational attention is the key to the efficient application of organizational learning. They also should avoid illusion of control and overconfidence, and improve the accuracy of environmental forecasting through rational thinking.

Key words: organizational learning, organizational attention, firm’s forecasting ability, illusion of control, overconfidence