科研管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 86-94.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市创新空间溢出效应测度及分解

程开明1,章雅婷2   

  1. 1.浙江工商大学 统计与数学学院,浙江 杭州310018;
    2.浙江工业和信息化研究院,浙江 杭州310006
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-22 修回日期:2017-12-12 出版日期:2018-12-20 发布日期:2018-12-21
  • 通讯作者: 程开明
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省社科规划优势学科重大委托项目子课题(No.16YSXK02ZD-3YB);浙江省自然科学基金一般项目(No.LY18G030009);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(No. 18YJA630016);国家自然科学基金面上项目(No.71373240);2017-2018年度浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划规划重点项目(No. 2018GH010);浙江省一流学科 (A类, 浙江工商大学统计学)。

Measurement and decomposition of cities’ innovation spatial spillovers in China

Cheng Kaiming1, Zhang Yating2   

  1. 1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China;
    2. Zhejiang Institute of Industry and Information Technology, Hangzhou 310006, Zhejiang, China
  • Received:2015-10-22 Revised:2017-12-12 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-21

摘要: 城市聚集了不同才能、教育、文化和语言背景的人群,为创新的产生及溢出创造良好环境。本文依据2009~2012年全国272个地级以上城市的面板数据,利用Moran’s I系数发现城市创新产出具有明显的空间自相关性,进而基于负指数衰减空间权重矩阵选择个体固定空间杜宾模型开展城市创新空间溢出效应的测算,并利用求偏微分法分解出空间杜宾模型下各自变量对因变量的直接效应、间接效应和总效应,考察全国及东中西部地区城市创新空间溢出随地理距离的变动模式。结果表明:(1)我国城市创新活动具有显著的空间正溢出效应,且在不同空间权重矩阵下和不同地区表现出较强的稳健性,但地区之间的溢出效应差异较大。(2)科技经费支出、科技人员数量、城市经济发展水平和外商直接投资均对城市创新产出产生促进作用,其中科技经费支出与人均GDP的空间溢出总效应、直接效应和间接效应都很明显。(3)全国城市创新空间溢出效应从150公里到1000公里范围内显著为正,650公里处效应最强;东部、中部及西部地区的城市创新空间溢出效应分别在150公里、550公里及750公里处达到最大值。

关键词: 城市创新, 空间溢出, 效应分解, 地理距离

Abstract: Cities create good environments for the generation and diffusion of innovation because they can gather people with different talents, education, culture and language. Based on the panel data of 272 prefecture level cities from 2009 to 2012, spatial autocorrelation of cities’ innovation is analyzed by Moran’s I index. Then cities’ innovation spillover effect is measured through spatial weight matrix based on exponential decay and Spatial Durbin Model(SDM). And the direct effect and indirect effect of each independent variable on the dependent are decomposed by partial derivative method. The relationship of spillovers effect and geographic distance in China and three regions are explored. Results show that innovations in cities have positively significant spillovers effect and it is robust for other two spatial weight matrixes and different regions. The expenditure for R&D, scientific research personnel, economic development and foreign direct investment have positive effect on innovation. Total effect, direct effect and indirect effect of the expenditure for R&D and per capita GDP are obvious. Spillovers effect of total cities is positive for the geographic distance from 150km to 1000km. And it reaches the maximum at 650km. Spillovers effect of east, middle and west region reach the max value at 150km, 550km and 750km.

Key words:  cities&rsquo, innovation, spatial spillovers, effect decomposition, geographic distance