科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 17-26.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于显著性差异的经济社会发展评价指标筛选模型及应用

孟斌,匡海波,骆嘉琪   

  1. 大连海事大学 综合交通运输协同创新中心，辽宁 大连116026
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-15 修回日期:2018-04-21 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-26
  • 通讯作者: 匡海波
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71731003, 71831002, 71672016)；长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT_17R13)；国家社会科学基金项目(16BTJ017)；辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(2019lslktqn-021)；辽宁省高等教育内涵发展专项资金资助项目(20110117201, 20110116102)；大连市社科联重点课题(2017dlskzd034)。

Socio-economic development evaluation indicators screening model and its application based on significant differences

Meng Bin, Kuang Haibo, Luo Jiaqi   

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2017-06-15 Revised:2018-04-21 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-26

摘要： 经济社会发展是国家“十三五”规划的重点，建立一套既能显著反映城市经济社会发展状况，又能明确未来的经济社会发展方向的评价指标体系，成为明确规划目标、设置标准、推动城市发展的当务之急。从反映经济社会发展内涵的角度出发，从经济发展、社会民生、科技进步、资源环境四个方面海选指标，依据信息含量最大和冗余信息剔除原则定量筛选指标，构建了影响显著的经济社会发展评价指标体系。文章的创新与特色：一是通过同一个指标不同评价对象的差异越大、指标信息含量越大、这个指标对评价结果的影响越显著的思路，构建指标的基尼系数值，剔除基尼系数值较小、即信息含量小的指标，保证筛选后的指标体系对经济社会发展有显著影响，避免了现有评价体系中指标对评价结果区分不明显的弊端，扩展了基尼系数的应用。二是在偏相关系数大于0.8的两个指标中，根据基尼系数值越大、这个指标鉴别能力越强、信息含量越大的思路删除基尼系数值较小、即信息含量较小的指标，避免了现有研究在剔除冗余指标时、对鉴别能力大的指标可能被误删的不足。三是实证结果表明：本文构建的指标体系覆盖经济社会发展的各个方面，通过37.1%的指标，反映了98.7%的原始信息。既反映了与国家规划相协调，又反映了大连市中长期规划的连续性，同时还能反映国家未来的热点问题。

关键词: 经济社会发展评价, 评价体系, 指标体系, 显著性差异

Abstract: Economic and social development is the focus of the national “13th Five-Year Plan”. It is urgent to establish an evaluation index system that has both a significant reflection of the city's economic and social development but also a clear future economic and social development. Such a system can clear planning goals, set standards and promote urban development. From the perspective of the connotation of economic and social development, this paper chooses the indexes of economic development, social livelihood, scientific and technological progress, resources and environment. According to the principle of maximum information content and redundant information elimination, the paper select the index and construct a significant evaluation index system of economic and social development. The innovation and characteristics of the article: First, according to the principle that the greater the difference between the evaluation object and the indexes information content, the more significant the impact of this index on the evaluation results, this paper constructs the Gini coefficient of the index, and removes the smaller Gini coefficient, that is, information content of small indexes to ensure that the index system after screening has a significant impact on the economic and social development. and it also avoids the shortcomings of the existing evaluation system that the indexes do not distinguish the evaluation results clearly, and extend the application of the Gini coefficient. Second, according to the principle that the greater the value of the Gini coefficient, the higher the ability to identify of the index, the greater the information content to remove the smaller Gini coefficient, that is, information content of small indexes in the two index of partial correlation coefficient greater than 0.8. By this way ,the paper can avoid the shortcoming that of the existing evaluation system that the indexes with high discrimination ability may be mistakenly deleted when eliminate those redundant indexes. Third, the empirical results show that: The index system constructed in this paper covers all aspects of economic and social development, reflecting 98.7% of the original information through 37.1% of the indexes. It not only reflects the coordination with the national planning, but also reflects the Dalian city long-term planning continuity and the country's future hot issues.

Key words: economic and social development evaluation, evaluation system, index system, significant difference