关键词: 技术依赖, 技术锁定, 锁定效应, 开放, 葡萄酒产业

Abstract: The endogenous growth theory emphasizes the role of the international technology spillovers from international trade channels in economic development, and takes the international trade as the trigger for technology progress. The paper firstly reviewed the principle and formation mechanism of path dependence and lock-in effect in the technological development. Secondly, on the basis of sample containing 10 wine regions’ data of China from 1998 to 2014, the technological progress was measured and the lock-in of technology in Chinese wine industry was clarified based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). Lastly, three econometric models were constructed so that the technology lock-in effect and the transmission mechanism of factor resources to lock-in effect were discussed during the development of Chinese wine industry under the conditions of China’s opening up. The main conclusions showed that: (1) For Chinese wine industry, the average growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP) was 12.40%, and the total factor productivity growth was the result of technological progress（TECH） and technical efficiency change（EFF）; In the development of Chinese wine industry, there were obvious characteristics of technology lock-in, and the technical efficiency was hovering around the relatively low level of 2.0, and was unable to achieve effective breakthrough; (2) Regression model examining the impact of the opening up on the technological progress of the wine industry. The opening up indexes were expressed in import and export volume of wine, and technological progress represented by total factor productivity (TFP), technical efficiency (EFF) and technical progress (TECH) respectively. Opening up had both positive and negative effects on the wine industry technological progress. Wine export (X) had negative effects on TFP, EFF, TECH, the competitiveness of domestic wine products was low. Import of wine however played an important role in the improvement of China's wine industry technology ability, imports increased by 1%, technological progress would increase by 0.183%. (3) Lock-in effect model, namely, the effect of opening up on the allocation of physical capital and human capital was simulated. The result showed that import trade had remarkable oriented influence on the distribution of resources (material capital, human capital). Wine imports increased by 1%, the application amount of physical capital and human capital increased by 0.35% and 0.143% respectively. Export trade had negative effects on material capital and human capital optimal allocation. (4) The transmission mechanism of factor resources to lock-in effect was discussed during the development of Chinese wine industry. Under open economy, there was obvious lock-in effect in technology efficiency for China wine industry; the lock-in effect of total factor productivity was weak. And the low-level Human capital was the main approach, through which the open economy influencing technology lock-in effect. To promote the quality of human capital would help Chinese wine industry threw off the negative aspect of lock-in effect during opening up.

Key words: technology dependence, technology lock-in, lock-in effect, opening up, wine industry