关键词: 技术采纳, 技术发展不确定, 等待时间, 技术改进

Abstract: With the rapid development of global economy, the market competition has become more and more diversified. For the company, technology innovation is a good way to achieve the long-term progress. We do research on the corporate behavior of technology adoption in the presence of the uncertainty of technology development. Considering the practical situation of the technology development, we introduce the exponential distribution to suppose the increment of technological level after every technology improvement and construct the decision-making model of the corporate technology adoption. Finally, we get some conclusions through simulation that (i) on the premise that the average increment of technology improvement after every technology improvement is identical, the enterprise will at least wait longer before the technology adoption compared with the situation of uniform distribution. (ii) the corporate shortest waiting time before technology adoption is positively affected by the times of technology improvement per unit time, the average increment of technology improvement after every technology improvement, the technology adoption cost, and is negatively affected by the discount rate and the corporate initial technological level.

Key words: technology adoption, technology development uncertainty, waiting time, technology improvement