科研管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 48-57.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

P2P借款的损失能挽回吗? ——基于拍拍贷的实证研究

曾江洪,李文瀚,陈玺慧   

  1. 中南大学 商学院,湖南 长沙410083
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-21 修回日期:2016-03-24 出版日期:2016-08-20 发布日期:2016-08-17
  • 通讯作者: 李文瀚
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金项目:众筹模式中价值共创机制研究(项目编号:14BJY008,2014.6-2016.12);中南大学创新驱动项目:“互联网+”时代基于大数据的管理决策及应用(项目编号:2015CX010,2015.7-2017.6)。

Can loss restore it after P2P loan default? —An empirical analysis Based on loan defaults targets on ppdai.com

Zeng Jianghong, Li Wenhan, Chen Xihui   

  1. Business School, Central South University, Changsha 410083, Hunan, China
  • Received:2014-10-21 Revised:2016-03-24 Online:2016-08-20 Published:2016-08-17

摘要: 摘要:为解决网贷行业“去担保化”所带来的出借者损失问题,本文将P2P网络借贷的研究视角扩展到违约后还款阶段,探究了违约者还款的影响因素。重点讨论借贷可得性因素及违约者类型对于违约追偿处理的影响路径及机制,进而以纯中介平台拍拍贷2007年至2014年的违约黑名单为样本,基于时序性数据和Logit模型就借贷可得性因素和违约者类型对借款者违约后还款的影响及作用机制进行了实证检验,结果表明:(1)整体上看,人口属性与借贷数据都显著影响还款,其中男性、收入来源和借款金额正向显著影响,借贷可得性因素部分对违约后还款的影响被部分证明;(2)在追偿阶段财务类指标判别效果优于信用认证,说明面临财务困境的违约者更易还款;(3)违约者类型对追偿路径具有重要影响,违约者可根据是否具有还款意愿被分为“策略型”和“财务型”两类,财务能力是影响财务型违约者还款的关键因素,而信息认证产生的交流渠道则是对策略型违约者追偿的主要途径。

关键词: P2P网络借贷, 违约追偿, 违约还款影响因素, 违约者类型

Abstract: Abstract: In order to cover the losses of lenders after cancelling the platform guaranty in P2P lending industry, this paper extends the research perspective to the phase of reimbursement and explores the factors affecting defaulter repayment. By using loan default historical data on ppdai.com from 2007 to 2014, this paper emphasis on discussing how the factors of financing availability and the type of defaulter impact the recovery treatment mechanism after default, then conduct an empirical study of the financing availability factors and the defaulter types which effect on default borrows repayment basing on time-serials data and Logit model. The empirical results show that (1) demographic properties and borrowing history, such as male, source of income and loan Amounts, have positive significant effects on repayment, which means the effect of financing availability on repayment after default have been verified partially; (2) Financial determinants is better than credit determinants to identify the P2P defaulter loans that can be recovered, indicating that it’s easier for defaulters to repayment when they are confront of financial distress.(3) Default type has an important impact on repayment after default, which leads the defaulters who have different willingness to repay the loans to be divided into "strategic type" and "financial type". Financial capability is the key factors influencing the financial defaulters reimbursement,as well as the communication channels created by information certification is the main way to recover from strategic defaulters.

Key words: P2P network lending, default recovery, factors affecting defaulter repayment, defaulter types