基于系统动力学的新兴技术产业化策略研究

科研管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 21-31.

基于系统动力学的新兴技术产业化策略研究

任海英, 程善宝, 黄鲁成

北京工业大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100124

收稿日期:2011-03-07 修回日期:2012-03-30 出版日期:2013-05-27 发布日期:2013-05-20
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目"奥运科技产业化及基于奥运市场规则的国际化发展研究"(70639002),2006.6-2010.7; 国家社会科学基金重大项目"新兴技术未来分析理论方法及产业创新研究"(11&ZD140),2011.10-2015.12。

The strategy of emerging technology industrialization based on system dynamics

Ren Haiying, Cheng Shanbao, Huang Lucheng

School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Received:2011-03-07 Revised:2012-03-30 Online:2013-05-27 Published:2013-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 新兴技术产业化对推动社会经济发展具有重要作用,本文在两个维度上将新兴技术产业分为四类,并在系统的视角下对以混合动力汽车为代表的第IV类新兴技术产业化进行了研究。通过建立和分析混合动力汽车产业化的系统动力学模型,提出了中国混合动力汽车产业化发展的策略体系。本文的研究表明,通过系统建模对新兴技术产业化进行研究,是进行该领域研究的一种可行思路和方式。

关键词: 系统动力学, 新兴技术, 产业化, 混合动力汽车

Abstract: The industrialization of emerging technologies plays an important role in the promotion of social and economic development. Emerging technology industries are classified into two dimensions, four categories; and the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) industry which represents category IV emerging technologies is studied from a system dynamics perspective. Through modeling and analysis on the HEV industry, a development strategy system for China's HEV industry is proposed. The case study shows that system modeling is a viable approach for emerging technology research.

Key words: system dynamics, emerging technology, industrialization, HEV

中图分类号:

N949

任海英, 程善宝, 黄鲁成. 基于系统动力学的新兴技术产业化策略研究[J]. 科研管理, 2013, 34(5): 21-31.

Ren Haiying, Cheng Shanbao, Huang Lucheng. The strategy of emerging technology industrialization based on system dynamics[J]. Science Research Management, 2013, 34(5): 21-31.

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